Shapes and functions of species–area curves (II): a review of new models and parameterizations

This paper has extended and updated my earlier list and analysis of candidate models used in theoretical modelling and empirical examination of species–area relationships (SARs). I have also reviewed trivariate models that can be applied to include a second independent variable (in addition to area) and discussed extensively the justifications for fitting curves to SARs and the choice of model. There is also a summary of the characteristics of several new candidate models, especially extended power models, logarithmic models and parameterizations of the negative-exponential family and the logistic family. I have, moreover, examined the characteristics and shapes of trivariate linear, logarithmic and power models, including combination variables and interaction terms. The choice of models according to best fit may conflict with problems of non-normality or heteroscedasticity. The need to compare parameter estimates between data sets should also affect model choice. With few data points and large scatter, models with few parameters are often preferable. With narrow-scale windows, even inflexible models such as the power model and the logarithmic model may produce good fits, whereas with wider-scale windows where inflexible models do not fit well, more flexible models such as the second persistence (P2) model and the cumulative Weibull distribution may be preferable. When extrapolations and expected shapes are important, one should consider models with expected shapes, e.g. the power model for sample area curves and the P2 model for isolate curves. The choice of trivariate models poses special challenges, which one can more effectively evaluate by inspecting graphical plots.     

Evolutionary temperature compensation of carbon fixation in marine phytoplankton

The efficiency of carbon sequestration by the biological pump could decline in the coming decades because respiration tends to increase more with temperature than photosynthesis. Despite these differences in the short‐term temperature sensitivities of photosynthesis and respiration, it remains unknown whether the long‐term impacts of global warming on metabolic rates of phytoplankton can be modulated by evolutionary adaptation. We found that respiration was consistently more temperature dependent than photosynthesis across 18 diverse marine phytoplankton, resulting in universal declines in the rate of carbon fixation with short‐term increases in temperature. Long‐term experimental evolution under high temperature reversed the short‐term stimulation of metabolic rates, resulting in increased rates of carbon fixation. Our findings suggest that thermal adaptation may therefore have an ameliorating impact on the efficiency of phytoplankton as primary mediators of the biological carbon pump.     

Incorporating physiology into species distribution models moderates the projected impact of warming on selected Mediterranean marine species

Species distribution models (SDMs) correlate species occurrences with environmental predictors, and can be used to forecast distributions under future climates. SDMs have been criticized for not explicitly including the physiological processes underlying the species response to the environment. Recently, new methods have been suggested to combine SDMs with physiological estimates of performance (physiology-SDMs). In this study, we compare SDM and physiology-SDM predictions for select marine species in the Mediterranean Sea, a region subjected to exceptionally rapid climate change. We focused on six species and created physiology-SDMs that incorporate physiological thermal performance curves from experimental data with species occurrence records. We then contrasted projections of SDMs and physiology-SDMs under future climate (year 2100) for the entire Mediterranean Sea, and particularly the ‘warm’ trailing edge in the Levant region. Across the Mediterranean, we found cross-validation model performance to be similar for regular SDMs and physiology-SDMs. However, we also show that for around half the species the physiology-SDMs substantially outperform regular SDM in the warm Levant. Moreover, for all species the uncertainty associated with the coefficients estimated from the physiology-SDMs were much lower than in the regular SDMs. Under future climate, we find that both SDMs and physiology-SDMs showed similar patterns, with species predicted to shift their distribution north-west in accordance with warming sea temperatures. However, for the physiology-SDMs predicted distributional changes are more moderate than those predicted by regular SDMs. We conclude, that while physiology-SDM predictions generally agree with the regular SDMs, incorporation of the physiological data led to less extreme range shift forecasts. The results suggest that climate-induced range shifts may be less drastic than previously predicted, and thus most species are unlikely to completely disappear with warming climate. Taken together, the findings emphasize that physiological experimental data can provide valuable supplemental information to predict range shifts of marine species.     

Trade-off between number and length of remote videos for rapid assessments of reef fish assemblages

Remote underwater videos are widely employed to assess the structure and composition of reef fish assemblages but the sampling effort employed on each survey differs considerably, indicating that both the number of assessments and video length could be optimized. We searched for this optimal sampling effort in remote video samples to conduct rapid assessments of community composition and discussed the relation between number of replicates and video length, and how it impacts the method's efficiency to characterize species assemblages. Remote video recordings from tropical reefs in northeastern Brazil were used to investigate how fish species richness and composition builds across time and number of assays. Videos as short as 5 min successfully recorded species richness, requiring about five repetitions to record most species that compose 80% of the total biomass. Recording species composition required even less time in these reefs, setting a minimum of 3 min with the same five videos. By comparing the detected richness per analysed time unit, we found several shorter videos recorded for more species than a few longer videos, indicating that increasing the sampling coverage in the reef area might be better than just extending the video length for rapid assessments.     

Progress Curves Analysis as an Alternative for Exploration of Activation-inhibition Phenomena in Cholinesterases

The kinetic behaviour of insect acetylcholinesterases deviates from the Michaelis-Menten pattern. These deviations are known as activation or inhibition at various substrate concentrations and can be more or less observable depending on mutations around the active site of the enzyme. Most kinetic studies on these enzymes still rely on initial rate measurements. It is demonstrated here that according to this method one of the deviations can be overlooked. We attempt to point out that in such cases a detailed step-by-step progress curves analysis is successful. The study is focused on two different methods of analysing progress curves: (i) the first one is based on an integrated initial rate equation which can sufficiently fit truncated progress curves under corresponding conditions; and (ii) the other one precludes the algebraic formulae, but uses numerical integration for searching a non analytical solution of ordinary differential equations describing a kinetic model. All methods are tested on three different acetylcholinesterase mutants from Drosophila melanogaster. The results indicate that kinetic parameters for the E107K mutant with highly expressive activation and inhibition can be well evaluated applying any analysis method. It is quite different for E107W and E107Y mutants where latent activation is present, but discovered only using one or the other progress curves analysis methods.     

The Pneumatron: An automated pneumatic apparatus for estimating xylem vulnerability to embolism at high temporal resolution

Xylem vulnerability to embolism represents an important trait to determine species distribution patterns and drought resistance. However, estimating embolism resistance frequently requires time-consuming and ambiguous hydraulic lab measurements. Based on a recently developed pneumatic method, we present and test the “Pneumatron”, a device that generates high time-resolution and fully automated vulnerability curves. Embolism resistance is estimated by applying a partial vacuum to extract air from an excised xylem sample, while monitoring the pressure change over time. Although the amount of gas extracted is strongly correlated with the percentage loss of xylem conductivity, validation of the Pneumatron was performed by comparison with the optical method for Eucalyptus camaldulensis leaves. The Pneumatron improved the precision of the pneumatic method considerably, facilitating the detection of small differences in the (percentage of air discharged [PAD] < 0.47%). Hence, the Pneumatron can directly measure the 50% PAD without any fitting of vulnerability curves. PAD and embolism frequency based on the optical method were strongly correlated (r² = 0.93) for E. camaldulensis. By providing an open source platform, the Pneumatron represents an easy, low-cost, and powerful tool for field measurements, which can significantly improve our understanding of plant–water relations and the mechanisms behind embolism.     

Age structure of strandings and growth of Lahille's bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus gephyreus)

This study describes the age structure and sex-specific growth patterns of Lahille's bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus gephyreus), a subspecies endemic to the Southwest Atlantic Ocean (SWAO). The ages of 120 animals collected in southern Brazil between 1976 and 2017 were determined. We found high frequencies of young animals, mostly males, with no sex bias among adults. A temporal change in the age structure of strandings was observed, and we conclude it is a consequence of increased bycatch rates of young dolphins after 2000. The oldest male and female were 27 and 44 years old, respectively, suggesting that females live longer than males in southern Brazil. Growth curve analysis using Gompertz and Laird-Gompertz growth models estimated asymptotic lengths of 316.5 cm for females and 351.6 cm for males, (reached around 13 and 18 years old, respectively), supporting sexual size dimorphism for the subspecies. A second growth pulse was identified for males. Our work highlights the benefit of long-term studies and contributes valuable information toward understanding the life history of Lahille's bottlenose dolphin. It will serve as baseline for future studies that seek to understand mortality patterns of bottlenose dolphins elsewhere and the effects of anthropogenic actions on the survival of these animals.     

Equivalence of regression curves sharing common parameters

In clinical trials, the comparison of two different populations is a common problem. Nonlinear (parametric) regression models are commonly used to describe the relationship between covariates, such as concentration or dose, and a response variable in the two groups. In some situations, it is reasonable to assume some model parameters to be the same, for instance, the placebo effect or the maximum treatment effect. In this paper, we develop a (parametric) bootstrap test to establish the similarity of two regression curves sharing some common parameters. We show by theoretical arguments and by means of a simulation study that the new test controls its significance level and achieves a reasonable power. Moreover, it is demonstrated that under the assumption of common parameters, a considerably more powerful test can be constructed compared with the test that does not use this assumption. Finally, we illustrate the potential applications of the new methodology by a clinical trial example.